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Fed Rate Monitor Tool
Fed Interest Rate Decision Jun 12, 2024 02:00PM ET
5
Weeks
4
Days
2
Hours
14
Minutes
Our Fed rate monitor calculator is based on CME Group 30-Day Fed Fund futures prices, which tend to signal the markets’ expectations regarding the possibility of changes to US interest rates based on Fed monetary policy. The tool allows users to calculate the likelihood of an upcoming Fed rate hike or cut.
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Jun 12, 2024 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
94.690
5.00 - 5.25
8.4%
5.25 - 5.50
91.6%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.75 - 5.00 | — | — | 0.2% |
| 5.00 - 5.25 | 8.4% | 14.2% | 10.8% |
| 5.25 - 5.50 | 91.6% | 85.8% | 88.9% |
Updated: May 04, 2024 12:35AM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Jul 31, 2024 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
94.700
4.75 - 5.00
2.4%
5.00 - 5.25
32.5%
5.25 - 5.50
65.1%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.50 - 4.75 | — | — | 0.0% |
| 4.75 - 5.00 | 2.4% | 3.5% | 2.6% |
| 5.00 - 5.25 | 32.5% | 31.9% | 28.6% |
| 5.25 - 5.50 | 65.1% | 64.5% | 68.7% |
Updated: May 04, 2024 12:35AM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Sep 18, 2024 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
94.820
4.50 - 4.75
1.2%
4.75 - 5.00
17.4%
5.00 - 5.25
48.8%
5.25 - 5.50
32.6%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.25 - 4.50 | — | — | 0.0% |
| 4.50 - 4.75 | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.0% |
| 4.75 - 5.00 | 17.4% | 14.9% | 12.5% |
| 5.00 - 5.25 | 48.8% | 45.0% | 43.8% |
| 5.25 - 5.50 | 32.6% | 38.7% | 42.6% |
Updated: May 04, 2024 12:35AM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Nov 07, 2024 01:00PM ET
Future Price:
94.970
4.25 - 4.50
0.5%
4.50 - 4.75
7.4%
4.75 - 5.00
29.3%
5.00 - 5.25
42.6%
5.25 - 5.50
20.2%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.00 - 4.25 | — | — | 0.0% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| 4.50 - 4.75 | 7.4% | 5.2% | 3.6% |
| 4.75 - 5.00 | 29.3% | 23.5% | 19.6% |
| 5.00 - 5.25 | 42.6% | 43.2% | 43.6% |
| 5.25 - 5.50 | 20.2% | 27.7% | 33.0% |
Updated: May 04, 2024 12:35AM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Dec 18, 2024 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
95.055
4.00 - 4.25
0.3%
4.25 - 4.50
4.4%
4.50 - 4.75
20.1%
4.75 - 5.00
37.0%
5.00 - 5.25
29.7%
5.25 - 5.50
8.5%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.75 - 4.00 | — | — | 0.0% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 4.4% | 2.9% | 1.5% |
| 4.50 - 4.75 | 20.1% | 14.7% | 9.8% |
| 4.75 - 5.00 | 37.0% | 33.7% | 28.8% |
| 5.00 - 5.25 | 29.7% | 35.1% | 39.5% |
| 5.25 - 5.50 | 8.5% | 13.3% | 20.2% |
Updated: May 04, 2024 12:35AM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Jan 29, 2025 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
95.145
3.75 - 4.00
0.1%
4.00 - 4.25
2.1%
4.25 - 4.50
11.4%
4.50 - 4.75
27.6%
4.75 - 5.00
33.8%
5.00 - 5.25
20.3%
5.25 - 5.50
4.8%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.50 - 3.75 | — | — | 0.0% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 11.4% | 7.1% | 3.9% |
| 4.50 - 4.75 | 27.6% | 21.5% | 15.3% |
| 4.75 - 5.00 | 33.8% | 34.2% | 31.9% |
| 5.00 - 5.25 | 20.3% | 27.4% | 33.9% |
| 5.25 - 5.50 | 4.8% | 8.6% | 14.4% |
Updated: May 04, 2024 12:35AM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Mar 12, 2025 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
95.300
3.75 - 4.00
0.9%
4.00 - 4.25
5.9%
4.25 - 4.50
18.0%
4.50 - 4.75
30.1%
4.75 - 5.00
28.3%
5.00 - 5.25
13.9%
5.25 - 5.50
2.8%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.25 - 3.50 | — | — | 0.0% |
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 5.9% | 3.3% | 1.5% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 18.0% | 12.3% | 7.2% |
| 4.50 - 4.75 | 30.1% | 26.1% | 20.0% |
| 4.75 - 5.00 | 28.3% | 31.7% | 32.5% |
| 5.00 - 5.25 | 13.9% | 20.5% | 28.4% |
| 5.25 - 5.50 | 2.8% | 5.5% | 10.3% |
Updated: May 04, 2024 12:35AM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Apr 23, 2025 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
95.380
3.50 - 3.75
0.5%
3.75 - 4.00
3.4%
4.00 - 4.25
11.8%
4.25 - 4.50
23.9%
4.50 - 4.75
29.2%
4.75 - 5.00
21.2%
5.00 - 5.25
8.5%
5.25 - 5.50
1.4%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.00 - 3.25 | — | — | — |
| 3.25 - 3.50 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 11.8% | 7.3% | 3.5% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 23.9% | 18.3% | 11.7% |
| 4.50 - 4.75 | 29.2% | 28.6% | 24.4% |
| 4.75 - 5.00 | 21.2% | 26.9% | 31.0% |
| 5.00 - 5.25 | 8.5% | 14.0% | 22.0% |
| 5.25 - 5.50 | 1.4% | 3.1% | 6.6% |
Updated: May 04, 2024 12:35AM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Jun 04, 2025 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
95.545
3.50 - 3.75
0.9%
3.75 - 4.00
4.5%
4.00 - 4.25
13.5%
4.25 - 4.50
24.7%
4.50 - 4.75
28.1%
4.75 - 5.00
19.5%
5.00 - 5.25
7.5%
5.25 - 5.50
1.2%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.75 - 3.00 | — | — | — |
| 3.00 - 3.25 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 3.25 - 3.50 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 13.5% | 8.8% | 4.7% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 24.7% | 19.8% | 13.5% |
| 4.50 - 4.75 | 28.1% | 28.3% | 25.4% |
| 4.75 - 5.00 | 19.5% | 25.1% | 29.7% |
| 5.00 - 5.25 | 7.5% | 12.4% | 19.8% |
| 5.25 - 5.50 | 1.2% | 2.6% | 5.7% |
Updated: May 04, 2024 12:35AM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Jul 16, 2025 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
95.595
3.25 - 3.50
0.6%
3.50 - 3.75
3.4%
3.75 - 4.00
10.8%
4.00 - 4.25
21.3%
4.25 - 4.50
27.1%
4.50 - 4.75
22.0%
4.75 - 5.00
11.1%
5.00 - 5.25
3.1%
5.25 - 5.50
0.4%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.50 - 2.75 | — | — | — |
| 2.75 - 3.00 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 3.00 - 3.25 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 3.25 - 3.50 | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 10.8% | 6.7% | 3.1% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 21.3% | 16.0% | 9.8% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 27.1% | 25.4% | 20.4% |
| 4.50 - 4.75 | 22.0% | 26.2% | 27.9% |
| 4.75 - 5.00 | 11.1% | 16.7% | 24.0% |
| 5.00 - 5.25 | 3.1% | 6.0% | 11.6% |
| 5.25 - 5.50 | 0.4% | 0.9% | 2.4% |
Updated: May 04, 2024 12:35AM EDT
Fed Fund Rates
News
Dollar stabilizes after Powell speech; labor market data in focus
By Investing.com - May 02, 2024
Investing.com - The U.S. dollar stabilized Thursday after a sharp overnight drop in the wake of Fed Chair Jerome Powell ruling out any rate hikes, while the Japanese yen was volatile amid intervention...
European stocks mixed; Shell shines as quarterly earnings continue
By Investing.com - May 02, 2024
Investing.com - European stock markets traded in a mixed fashion Wednesday, with traders returning after a midweek break to digest a Federal Reserve meeting as well as a deluge of corporate...
Powell speech, Apple results, OECD growth - what's moving markets
By Investing.com - May 02, 2024
15
Investing.com -- Fed chief Jerome Powell appears to have calmed nerves on Wall Street, with futures looking positive. Apple is set to report results after the close, and a drop in revenue is expected,...
Analysis
EUR/USD Ripe for a Short Ahead of NFP Data Release: Key Trading Levels to Monitor
By Damian Nowiszewski - May 03, 2024
1
The Fed held its policy meeting, leaving rates unchanged but slowing down quantitative tightening. Today's focus shifts to US labor data: strong figures could justify the Fed's hawkish stance of...
S&P 500 Attempts to Resume Long-Term Bull Trend Ahead of Apple Earnings, Key Data
By Fawad Razaqzada - May 02, 2024
Index futures are in the green after Fed holds rates steady, but uncertainty lingers before Apple earnings and key US data. Meanwhile, can Apple earnings tonight spark a bullish run, or will the...
Fed Tapering, Economic Softness Spark Mixed Reactions
By Ipek Ozkardeskaya - May 02, 2024
The Federal Reserve (Fed) decision yesterday was - interesting. As expected, the Fed kept its rates unchanged and said that they are not confident about cutting the interest rates as inflation has...