Bonds Analysis & Opinion

The one return stat that jumped out at me, was the +0.12% 10-year annual return for the TLT.That’s pretty grim. This is a table updated once a month. The only asset not included is...

Bonds issued by companies with a credit rating of BB or lower by S&P or Fitch, or Ba or lower by Moody's (NYSE:MCO), are considered junk bonds.Junk bonds, or high-yield bonds because the interest...

Bowing to recent data, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday conceded that inflation progress has stalled and the case for rate cuts has weakened.The Treasury market has been effectively...

The market continues to price the US 10-year Treasury yield well above its estimated “fair value,” based on the average of three models run by CapitalSpectator.com.Yesterday’s...

The fundamental outlook for bonds remains questionable at best. The leading indicators of growth and inflation for 2024 suggest both dynamics could put upside pressure on yields. Sentiment toward...

The bond market has struggled to fully recover from the Federal Reserve’s aggressive run of interest-rate hikes in 2022-2023, but pockets of strength remain conspicuous. Within the fixed-income...

With the FOMC meeting announcement this coming Wednesday, March 29th, 2024, and Wall Street and the investment community still talking about potential interest rate cuts, it can’t be helped but...

The US 10-year Treasury yield continues to trade well above a ‘fair value’ estimate, based on the average of three models maintained by CapitalSpectator.com.The market premium continues to...

Even if US yields do slip into the weekend, as is quite possible, there are elements next week that will keep the bear phase element to the fore for bonds (watch core PCE carefully). The ECB simply...

Yesterday I outlined the case that several ‘fair-value’ models suggest the current US 10-year Treasury yield appears high relative to the fundamentals.As a quick follow-up, what does a...

The past few months have given investors the feeling that the 3 year (monster) rally in treasury bond yields is over.But the lull may be over. And it’s looking like bond yields (interest rates)...

The US 10-year Treasury yield spiked yesterday following the release of hotter-than-expected consumer inflation data in January.The news also convinced the market that the Federal Reserve would push...

Much of the global bond market is struggling this year, with a conspicuous exception: below-investment-grade bonds issued by companies in emerging markets.Based on year-to-date results through...

By Padhraic GarveyMarkets are awaiting Tuesday’s US CPI release which should give confirmation that the disinflation trend continues. But that's not enough, as a consensus month-on-month outcome...